Industry
The markets we operate in
Leaf trading is the group’s current core. Premium cigars and premium spirits are the expansion. Each sits in a market measured in billions, and the group’s share of all three is a rounding error today.
Global leaf production
4.316
million tons
Estimated global tobacco leaf production, 2025
CASK to LEAF’s current business is almost entirely the trading of tobacco leaf — the raw material used by cigarette, cigar and other tobacco manufacturers. Production consists of three main varieties: flue-cured (FCV), burley (BT) and oriental (OT). FCV is by far the largest share. Oriental is not a focus area for the group and is excluded below.
| Year | Total (M tons) | FCV share | Burley share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3.889 | 90.54% | 7.43% |
| 2024 | 3.837 | 88.95% | 8.75% |
| 2025 | 4.316 | 87.07% | 10.63% |
Flue-cured (FCV)
China dominates output but exports almost nothing — local demand absorbs it. The export market belongs to Brazil, India and Zimbabwe.
- China
- 1.98M · 52.80%
- Brazil
- 0.55M · 14.67%
- India
- 0.36M · 9.45%
- Zimbabwe
- 0.28M · 7.45%
Burley (BT)
India is the group’s primary sourcing origin for both FCV and burley.
- India
- 0.21M · 45.97%
- Malawi
- 0.14M · 30.50%
Market segments
Three markets, one supply chain
Tobacco and cigar leaf
The global tobacco market was estimated at approximately USD 886 billion in 2023, growing at 2.5% CAGR through 2030. The group’s volume is a small fraction of global supply — the constraint is capital, not addressable market.
Source: Grand View Research; WHO (2022)
- Cigar leaf is a niche, high-value category grown in Indonesia, China, Ecuador, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico and Costa Rica.
- Indonesian cigar leaf is in high demand for blends made by leading cigar brands; the group has commenced sourcing and sale from Indonesia.
- Indonesian leaf production was 261,017 MT in 2020, with exports of USD 196 million (WHO, Tobacco Agriculture & Trade – Indonesia, 2022).
- 11.21% of those 2020 exports — USD 21.97 million — went to the Dominican Republic, a major premium cigar producer, implying high-grade cigar leaf.
Premium handmade cigars
The non-Cuban “New World” cigar market is large and growing, anchored in the United States with rising awareness in Europe and Asia. The group already sources premium handmade cigars from Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic and Honduras.
Source: Cigar Association of America
- The US imported an estimated 467.6 million premium cigars in 2023, up 0.7% on 2022.
- Nicaragua led with 246.3 million cigars in 2023 (−1.8%); the Dominican Republic grew 15.8% to 149.2 million; Honduras fell 16.2% to 69.7 million.
- Through October 2024, US premium imports rose 4.6% to 362.8 million cigars — Nicaragua +3.5% to 210.9 million, the Dominican Republic +13.6% to 94.2 million, Honduras −6.7% to 54.7 million.
- EU and Asia (ex-China) volumes for New World premium cigars are assumed at 15–20% of US volumes, or roughly 60–80 million cigars.
Premium whisky
The group plans to enter premium whisky with its own label single malt and blended Scotch, sourced from Scotland and Ireland. Scotland is the world leader in whisky export, and the group’s home region is its most valuable market.
Source: Scotch Whisky Association, 2024
- Scotch exports in 2024: 1.4 billion 70cl bottles valued at £5.4 billion (Scotch Whisky Association).
- India is the number one export market by volume at 192 million bottles; the US remains the largest by value at £971 million.
- Asia-Pacific was the largest region by value at £1.57 billion — 29.1% of global exports — down 12.4% on 2023 but up 26.9% on 2019, with volume up 6% to 419 million bottles.
- Versus pre-Covid 2019, Scotch exports are up 10% in value and 7% in volume.
Scotch whisky exports 2024
Asia-Pacific is the largest region by value
India overtook France as the largest volume market as UK–India FTA talks continued. The industry’s asks include cutting the 150% tariff on Scotch entering India, which would materially expand that market.
| Market | 2024 value | vs 2023 | vs 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Singapore | £310m | −17.9% | +3.5% |
| Taiwan | £298m | −12.5% | +45.1% |
| India | £248m | +13.8% | +49.5% |
| Japan | £182m | +7.1% | +24.2% |
| China | £161m | −31.5% | +81.4% |
Data current as at FY2025 unless otherwise stated.
Investors
See how this maps to the plan
The investor deck sets out how the group intends to convert this market position into $60M of revenue by 2028.